After a first few days of chaos and contradiction, an increasingly clear and coherent picture of the investigation into the murder of Boris Nemtsov is emerging, with Chechens at its heart. The triggerman seems to be believed to be Zaur Dadaev (who confessed and then claimed that had been given under duress) and the implication is that he was charged with the task by Ruslan Geremeev, deputy commander of the ‘Sever’ Battalion. Of course, the loudly unspoken question is whether Geremeev was in turn acting for Chechen leader – and his current protector – Ramzan Kadyrov, or one of his close allies such as his cousin Adam Delimkhanov.

The reason we know this is that although no court case is currently in session, there has been a steady flow of official statements and, above all, strategic leaks to the Russian media throughout the past five months. Whatever the truths behind the case, who decided Nemtsov had to die and why, the very fact that a traditionally tight-lipped system is leaking from every seam on this case does say something about some processes in today’s Russia.

Pluralism-by-Leak

First of all, as I’ve noted in Business New Europe, we should not assume that Putin’s essentially-unchallenged autocratic position means that there are no meaningful politics in Russia beyond the intrigues of a handful of courtiers and cronies around the throne. Sure, this is no more than a partial- and pseudo-democracy, but just as there are elements of democracy within the system, so too there are definitely signs of a kind of pluralism. 

However, it is rarely open, especially when sensitive issues are being discussed. Instead, it takes a variety of sidewise and sneaky forms, from coding debate in historical allegory (much of the discussion about late nineteenth and early twentieth century modernizers is really about today) or pretending to be talking about foreign countries (visible in much of Russian military discourse about “Western” non-linear warfare) to working behind sock puppet journalists, scholars and “analysts.”

Thus, the density of leaks about the Nemtsov case is also an index to the temperature of the debate behind the scenes not about the investigatory truths and juridical process, but how to handle the political dimensions of a case that probably connects back to Kadyrov. This, after all, is something above the pay grades of every official in Russia but one.

Whispering against Kadyrov

So the campaign of leaks is an expression of a covert form of politics and the consensus within the security and law enforcement apparatus that Something Must Be Done about Kadyrov. No one I have spoken to in Moscow has a kind word for the man, and if anything he deserves credit for, in his characteristic mix of the ruthless and the clownish, creating an almost unprecedented meeting of minds within agencies usually divided along and between factional, institutional and philosophical lines.

It is not, let us sadly note, for Nemtsov’s sake that these agencies are doing everything they can to keep the case and its Chechen connection in the public eye. Rather, the spectacle of a public opposition figure being gunned down in the literal shadow of the Kremlin and the consequent embarrassment for the government (and yes: regardless of its habit of bullishly dismissing foreign criticisms, this is a regime which does care how others regard it, just not always as much and in the way the West would like) represented too good an opportunity for them to discomfit and discredit Kadyrov. 

I have never believed that this siloviki bloc honestly thought they could oust Kadyrov over Nemtsov, not least because Putin – never a man happy to make tough choices when it comes to deciding between his favorites – still seems to feel he needs the Chechen strongman. If anything, the growing concern in Moscow about Islamic State may make it even less willing to take any moves which might further destabilize the North Caucasus. In this context, it may be worth noting that Kadyrov, perhaps realizing he needs to shore up his political flank, has recently stepped up his rhetoric against it, saying that “Not a single IS devil should remain in Chechnya” and even saying he personally would take “great pleasure” in going and fighting against the movement. At the same time, though, he continues to affirm Dadaev’s innocence.

However, the nature of bureaucratic politics in Russia – indeed, everywhere – is that it is always worth making hay while the sun shines, and that sneak attacks are always worth a try. Hence the gleeful series of leaks and rumors, keeping the story in the public eye. Bit by bit, the hope is to try and convince Putin, and his closest circle, that Kadyrov is a liability not an asset. When and if the day comes that the decision is finally made that Ramzan has to go, they will be ready.

Venting

But there is also one last dimension to the campaign of leaks. Although it is often said that the ship of state is the only ship that leaks from the top, many actually come from the bottom. However we might focus on the failings and distortions of the Russian legal and investigative system – and there are many – we need also to remember that they are many able, hard-working and honest officers and officials, men and women who joined not to take bribes or genuflect to power, but to do the job, and do it as well as their capabilities and the system would allow.

Rather than assuming that all the leaks are part of deep clashes between rival interests, it is also worth noting that just as such moves are part of covert politics, they are also covert protests, expressions of the frustrations and downright angers of people involved. This is an investigation which has actually been handled rather well – but has now run into politics. Ramzan is directly and overtly protecting Geremeev and this blocking the vital next stage in the investigation. Putin is indirectly and implicitly protecting Kadyrov, blocking any chance to get round the Chechen stonewall. In the circumstances, barring any change in either of these two constraints, then charging and convicting the triggermen is about the best that can be hoped for – as usual. This may be business and usual when it comes to politically sensitive trials in Russia, from Politkovskaya to Starovoitova, but it doesn’t mean that everyone involved has to be happy with that.

So in this way, the continuing coverage of the Nemtsov case, however frustrating and depressing for those of us who want to see justice for the man himself, can also be read in some ways as a sneaky sign of some positive characteristics. There are efforts to articulate alternative perspectives, regardless of the seeming singularity of the “Putin line.” There are serious figures and interests, even for the most self-interested of reasons, who want to see an end to Kadyrov, perhaps the most grotesque of the cast in today’s Russian drama. And there are people who are fed up with not being able to do their jobs honestly and well.